If you’re looking to get in on the action for Super Bowl LVII, why not place a simple bet or two on who will find the end zone?
SI Sportsbook has the game total listed all the way up at 50.5, suggesting it doesn’t expect a low-scoring defensive battle. Instead, we could have a shootout with the point spread remaining at less than a field goal.
What does that mean? Touchdowns, baby! Here’s hoping we get more than a couple and lots of players will cash bettors’ tickets.
Let’s break down the current touchdown props markets at SI Sportsbook for the Big Game between the Chiefs and Eagles.
Super Bowl LVII First, Anytime, Last Touchdown Props
First (+675) | Anytime (-110) | Last (+675)
First (+750) | Anytime (+105) | Last (+775)
First (+775) | Anytime (+105) | Last (+800)
First (+900) | Anytime (+125) | Last (+875)
First (+950) | Anytime (+130) | Last (+1000)
First (+1050) | Anytime (+150) | Last (+1100)
First (+1150) | Anytime (+170) | Last (+1200)
First (+1250) | Anytime (+175) | Last (+1250)
First (+1650) | Anytime (+260) | Last (+1750)
First (+1650) | Anytime (+270) | Last (+1700)
First (+1700) | Anytime (+270 | Last (+1750)
First (+1750) | Anytime (+270) | Last (+1750)
First (+2200) | Anytime (+320) | Last (+2200)
First (+2500) | Anytime (+420) | Last (+2500)
First (+2800) | Anytime (+475) | Last (+3000)
First (+300 | Anytime (+560) | Last (+3300)
First (+3300) | Anytime (+640) | Last (+4000)
First (+300) | Anytime (+550) | Last (+4000)
First (+4000) | Anytime (+575) | Last (+3300)
First (+4500) | Anytime (+875) | Last (+4500)
First (+6000) | Anytime (+950) | Last (+5000)
First (+7000) | Anytime (+1100) | Last (+7000)
First (+8000) | Anytime (+1400) | Last (+8000)
First (+8000) | Anytime (+1600) | Last (+8000)
First (+9000) | Anytime (+1450) | Last (+9000)
First (+9000) | Anytime (+1450) | Last (+9000)
First (+10000) | Anytime (+1850) | Last (+10000)
First (+10000) | Anytime (+2000) | Last (+12500)
First (+12500) | Anytime (+2000) | Last (+12500)
First (+12500) | Anytime (+2000) | Last (+10000)
No Touchdown Scorer (+15000)
This definitely sets up like a game with rushing touchdowns, as the Eagles scored a league-leading 32 rushing touchdowns during the regular season. The second-closest team was the Cowboys with 24. The Eagles also have seven in the playoffs.
The Chiefs have not scored a rushing touchdown yet this postseason.
As for rushing touchdowns allowed, the Eagles allowed 15 rushing touchdowns (17th) during the regular season with the Chiefs allowing only 10 (fifth).
Last week, the Eagles had four rushing touchdowns in a single game vs. the league’s second-toughest run defense in the 49ers. Miles Sanders had two of them, while Jalen Hurts carried the ball across the goal line once. Hurts leads Philadelphia with 15 rushing touchdowns across 17 games (including postseason), an average of nearly one per game. Sanders has 13 touchdowns in 19 total games.
For Kansas City, Isiah Pacheco has only five total touchdowns across 19 while Patrick Mahomes has added four rushing scorers. Two of those five touchdowns came in the last four games Pacheco has played and his five total rushing touchdowns leads the pass-heavy Chiefs. With Mahomes slightly banged up, I would guess they won’t do anything to threaten his health and Pacheco will likely get any goal line carries. However, Mahomes has proven to be nearly super-human, so getting +475 odds on his anytime touchdown prop could be a fun bet. Mahomes has +325 odds to score over 0.5 rushing touchdowns.
With the Chiefs being a pass-heavy team and such a high game total, we will also likely see a number of receiving touchdowns next Sunday. The Eagles have the healthier receiving corps and Hurts can also threaten teams with the pass. Multiple receivers could find the end zone next in Super Bowl LVII.
If you want to just pull a lotto ticket, SI Sportsbook has odds on players like Zach Pascal, Quez Watkins and Noah Gray. Of those players, perhaps Gray is the best bet. As we hear more about Kadarius Toney’s and JuJu Smith-Schuster’s health leading into the game, that value will likely change. If Toney and Smith-Schuster are able to go, my pick for the long shot would be Watkins.
Long shots aside, let’s focus on the player with the best odds to find the end zone - Travis Kelce. Mahomes has found Kelce in the end zone a team-high 15 times this year across 19 total games, including three postseason scores. He has commanded a 31.9% target share for the Chiefs this year.
Kelce’s 15 postseason touchdowns are tied with Rob Gronkowski for the second-most all time, behind only Jerry Rice. However, Kelce’s 15 touchdowns have come across only 17 games played, while Gronkowski played 22 and Rice played 29. Kelce has nearly one touchdown per postseason game played in his career.
Next up for the Chiefs with receiving touchdowns this year is Jerick McKinnon, who logged nine. All nine of those receiving scores came across the last six regular-season games and he does not have a receiving touchdown in the postseason.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has four receiving touchdowns this year, with one coming in each postseason game.
A.J. Brown has 11 receiving touchdowns for the Eagles this year, though none of them have come during the postseason. Week 16 was the last time Brown found the end zone. Though he hasn’t had a single red zone target in the postseason, he has seen a 29.6% red zone target share this season.
DeVonta Smith has a 25.9% target share for the year,and a 28.6% target share for the postseason (which, coincidentally is the same as Kenneth Gainwell). He’s had one postseason touchdown and seven more during the regular season.
Dallas Goedert had a 20.4% target share this year but during the postseason, he has commanded a whopping 42.9% of the red zone targets. He had a touchdown in the divisional round vs. the Giants, and he had three more across 15 regular-season games. The Chiefs have allowed the fifth-most touchdowns to tight ends.
Editor’s Note: You can read more on rushing, receiving and passing touchdown props in these articles.
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